The Null Hypothesis and the Alternative Hypothesis
We’ve already mentioned in this essay series the Null Hypothesis and the Alternative Hypothesis, which are an integral part of every science experiment. We saw how the Materialists, Naturalists, Darwinists, Nihilists, and Atheists implicitly and often unknowingly use the Null Hypothesis as their Alternative Hypothesis by making correlation or chance DO causation.
We developed a powerful TEST for truth assertions that lets us KNOW immediately when the scientists and our college professors are lying to us. Whenever these people start using Chance or the Null Hypothesis to do causation, then we automatically KNOW that they are lying to us and trying to trick us and deceive us.
Simple. Powerful. Parsimonious. Logical. True.
Now let’s study Statistics, the Scientific Method, Science Experiments, the Null Hypothesis, and the Alternative Hypothesis for a few minutes to see what else we can learn.
In any experiment, there are two hypotheses that compete for explaining the results: the alternative hypothesis and the null hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is the one that claims the difference in results between conditions is due to the independent variable.
The null hypothesis is set up to be the logical counterpart of the alternative hypothesis such that if the null hypothesis is false, the alternative hypothesis must be true. Therefore, these two hypotheses must be mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
The null hypothesis asserts that the independent variable has no effect on the dependent variable. You can see that these two hypotheses are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. If the null hypothesis is false, then the alternative hypothesis must be true.
As you will see, we always first evaluate the null hypothesis and try to show that it is false. If we can show it to be false, then the alternative hypothesis must be true.
We always evaluate the results of an experiment by assessing the null hypothesis. The reason we directly assess the null hypothesis instead of the alternative hypothesis is that we can calculate the probability of chance events, but there is no way to calculate the probability of the alternative hypothesis. We evaluate the null hypothesis by assuming it is true and testing the reasonableness of this assumption by calculating the probability of getting the results if chance alone is operating. The null hypothesis is evaluated by assuming chance alone is responsible for the differences in scores between conditions.
Every experiment exists to give the null hypothesis a chance to be rejected.
The null hypothesis is having a correlation equal to ZERO. (Understanding Statistics, pp. 242, 261, 285, 336.)
The Null Hypothesis represents chance, and the Alternative Hypothesis represents causation. Chance and causation are mutually exclusive, which means that the Null Hypothesis and the Alternative Hypothesis are mutually exclusive.
This is the KEY to separating the truths from the falsehoods in every Science.
Every science experiment is designed to reject Chance or the Null Hypothesis so that we can establish Causation or the Alternative Hypothesis instead. The purpose of an experiment is to find the True Cause of an event. The Null Hypothesis represents chance, and the Alternative Hypothesis represents causation. Chance and causation are mutually exclusive and falsify each other. These must be mutually exclusive and exhaustive, which means that chance can NEVER be used as causation in a True Science Experiment. To do so invalidates the results of our science experiment. Chance can NEVER be used as a causal explanation in Science and Statistics. To do so means that we are no longer doing science.
Yet, we constantly see the Materialists, Naturalists, Darwinists, Nihilists, and Atheists using chance and making chance the ONLY CAUSE of all the different things that exist in this universe. These people lie, cheat, and deceive because they don’t understand Science and the Philosophy of Science and how they are supposed to work and meant to work. These people deliberately use CHANCE as the cause of everything that exists in this universe, and these people are constantly teaching and preaching that CHANCE can design and create anything if given enough time to do so. That’s what they teach and believe, is it not? They are NOT doing science – they are doing the philosophy of science or a faulty and falsified interpretation of science.
Science exists to eliminate “chance” as the causal mechanism for all the different things that we experience and observe. The purpose of a science experiment is to find the True Cause of an event, and chance or the null hypothesis can NEVER be it, because by definition chance cannot produce a Real Effect and because by definition chance cannot be the True Cause of anything. Chance and causation are and must be mutually exclusive and exhaustive, otherwise, our science experiment is going to be falsely interpreted. Within a True Science Experiment and a True Science, we can NEVER make chance the cause or the causal explanation of what we are observing and experiencing. To do so falsifies our personal interpretation of the scientific evidence. Once you make chance the cause of what you are observing or proposing, then your scientific inference or causal explanation is automatically false and falsified. It’s that simple.
The whole purpose of a science experiment is to falsify, reject, and eliminate anything and everything that is produced by chance alone. The whole purpose of a science experiment is to falsify, reject, and eliminate the Null Hypothesis, Chance Causality, Creation by Chance, Creation by Random Disorder, or Chance Causation. The whole purpose of a science experiment is to falsify, reject, and eliminate Materialism, Naturalism, Darwinism, Nihilism, Atheism, Behaviorism, Determinism, Atomism, Physicalism, Creation by Chance, Creation Ex Nihilo, Creation by Random Disorder, Creation by Entropy, Chemical Evolution, Abiogenesis, Spontaneous Generation, Macro-Evolution, Creation by Death or Natural Selection, the Theory of Evolution, the Second Law of Thermodynamics, and everything else that is produced by chance alone. These things are automatically FALSE because by definition they were produced by chance alone. They ARE the Null Hypothesis because they are “caused” by chance alone. They are precisely the thing that we trying to identify and eliminate from Science because they were produced by chance alone.
Everything that is produced by chance alone goes into the garbage can where it belongs. That’s how Science and Science Experiments work, or at least that’s how they are supposed to work. We reject the Null Hypothesis because it was “caused by chance alone” or produced by chance alone! WE KNOW that chance can never do causation. We are searching for the True Cause of our scientific evidence, and by decree, chance can never be it. Chance cannot be the True Cause of anything. By definition, chance cannot produce a Real Effect. If it’s producing a Real Effect, then it is no longer chance. When running a science experiment, we are looking for the True Cause of an event, and by axiom or by decree chance can never by it. Remember, chance cannot be the True Cause of anything. If it’s causing something, then it is no longer chance! Chance and causation are mutually exclusive. Chance cannot do choice, creation, or causation.
This is the KEY to separating the truths from the falsehoods in Science.
The primary axiom of Science, Statistics, the Scientific Method, and Science Experiments is that chance cannot do causation. Chance and causation are mutually exclusive. If chance is causing something to happen, then it is no longer chance but has become some type of intelligent and deliberate causation or choice instead.
Remember, chance cannot do design, creation, causation, nor choice. Once it starts doing so, then it is no longer chance!
In his book, Pagano repeatedly emphasizes that we USE Statistics to eliminate the faulty interpretations that we want to give to the scientific evidence. The FATAL FLAW in the Scientific Method consists of all the faulty and falsified personal interpretations of the scientific data that we choose to give to the results of our science experiments. Scientists lie, especially to themselves. Scientists trick themselves and deceive themselves. Self-deception works, and it works every time. Nobody is immune. Statistics was designed to help scientists to get closer to the truth by removing and eliminating “chance” as a causal mechanism. The fundamental axiom of Statistics states that chance cannot do causation. Chance cannot produce a Real Effect! Chance or the Null Hypothesis exists to be rejected, falsified, and eliminated from Science, so that we can establish Causation or the Alternative Hypothesis instead.
If we verify or retain the Null Hypothesis or Causation by Chance in our science experiment, then WE KNOW that our independent variable has NO EFFECT on our dependent variable; and therefore, WE KNOW that there is NO causal relationship between our independent variable and our dependent variable, because WE KNOW that chance cannot do causation.
This is how we identify and eliminate the things that are false in science. We identify and eliminate everything that was produced by chance alone. We identify and eliminate Materialism, Naturalism, Darwinism, Nihilism, the Theory of Evolution, the Second Law of Thermodynamics, and their derivatives. That’s how we get to the truth in Science, by eliminating everything that is false! It works because negating the consequent is philosophically valid and logically sound. This is the pinnacle of the Philosophy of Science whether we realize it or not.
Statistics uses probability, logic, and mathematics as ways of determining whether or not observations made in the real world or laboratory are due to random happenstance or perhaps due to an orderly effect one variable has on another. Separating happenstance, or chance, from cause and effect is the task of science, and statistics is a tool to accomplish that end.
Occasionally, data will be so clear that the use of statistical analysis isn’t necessary. Occasionally, data will be so garbled that no statistics can meaningfully be applied to it to answer any reasonable question. But I will demonstrate that most often statistics is useful in determining whether it is legitimate to conclude that an orderly effect has occurred. If so, statistical analysis can also provide an estimate of the size of the effect. (Understanding Statistics, p. xxvii.)
Separating chance from causation IS the task of Science, the Scientific Method, Science Experiments, and Statistics!
According to the Philosophy of Science, the whole purpose for statistics and the scientific method is to ELIMINATE chance or happenstance as a causal source or a causal agent. Chance is an invalid cause or a false cause according to statistics and the scientific method.
In contrast, the Materialists, Naturalists, Darwinists, Nihilists, and Atheists have jumped to the conclusion that CHANCE designed and created everything in this physical universe. That is a faulty and falsified interpretation of scientific evidence, yet these people continue to insist that CHANCE made everything that exists. Therefore, every piece of scientific data and scientific evidence that these people encounter gets their personal interpretation that CHANCE ONLY designed it and created it. They are wrong, but that doesn’t stop them from jumping to that conclusion. Jumping to conclusions is a logic fallacy, but they don’t know that, because they do it all the time and have been taught to do it in their college science classes.
Materialism, Naturalism, Darwinism, Nihilism, Atheism, Behaviorism, Determinism, Physical Reductionism, Chemical Evolution, Macro-Evolution, Creation by Death (natural selection), Spontaneous Generation, Abiogenesis, the Theory of Evolution, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics ARE Creation by Chance, or Causation by Chance, or the Null Hypothesis. Therefore, if we falsify Creation by Chance or Chance Causality, then we have successfully falsified these FALSE religions, or FALSE philosophies, or FALSE personal interpretations of science.
The whole purpose of Statistics is to FALSIFY random happenstance, chance causality, causation by chance, creation by random disorder, or Creation by Chance. The whole purpose of Science and Statistics is to find the True Cause of an event, instead. By definition, in principle or practice, chance can NEVER be the True Cause of anything. Chance cannot produce a Real Effect. Separating happenstance or chance from “cause and effect” is the task of Science, the Scientific Method, Science Experiments, and Statistics.
In other words, the whole purpose of Science and Statistics is to identify Chance Causality or Creation by Chance and eliminate them from Science. The whole purpose of Science and Statistics is to identify Materialism, Naturalism, Darwinism, Nihilism, Atheism, the Theory of Evolution, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics; and then eliminate them from Science because they were produced by chance alone.
By far, most of the applications of inferential statistics are in the area of hypothesis testing. Scientific methodology depends on this application of inferential statistics. Without objective verification, science would cease to exist, and objective verification is often impossible without inferential statistics. You will recall that at the heart of scientific methodology is an experiment. Usually, the experiment has been designed to test a hypothesis, and the resulting data must be analyzed.
Occasionally, the results are so clear-cut that statistical inference is not necessary. However, such experiments are rare. Because of the variability that is inherent from subject to subject in the variable being measured, it is often difficult to detect the effect of the independent variable without the help of inferential statistics. In this chapter, we shall begin the fascinating journey into how experimental design, in conjunction with mathematical analysis, can be used to verify truth assertions or hypotheses, as we have been calling them. (Understanding Statistics, p. 239.)
Without objective verification, our scientific conclusions are completely worthless. If we are using Chance or the Null Hypothesis as our conclusion, then our Science and our Science Experiment are completely worthless. If we are using Chance or the Null Hypothesis as our independent variable or our dependent variable, then our Science, our Conclusions, and our Science Experiment are completely worthless. Without objective verification, science ceases to exist! The Materialists, Naturalists, Darwinists, and Atheists are no longer doing science because they cannot meet their burden of proof and because they cannot provide objective verification of their personal beliefs. These people are no longer doing science because they have chosen to believe that CHANCE designed and created everything that exists in this universe. That’s NOT science. That’s philosophy of science or a personal interpretation of science. It’s NOT science. These people don’t do science in the true sense of the word.
Chance can never be the cause of what we are observing because chance cannot do causation and because chance cannot produce a Real Effect. If chance is producing a Real Effect, then it is no longer chance. It has become some type of causation instead. Chance and causation are mutually exclusive. They falsify each other. They preclude each other from happening. They are also exhaustive. It’s either chance or causation. It’s never something in between. Chance cannot do causation.
Pagano makes Statistics an integral part of the Scientific Method, particularly the fourth and final “interpretation phase” of the Scientific Method. The purpose of Statistics is to prevent us from getting faulty interpretations of our scientific results. The purpose of Statistics is to prevent us from using CHANCE as our causal mechanism or our causal explanation!
Powerful, is it not?
A lot of lights went on when this finally hit home.
Scientists lie, but if used properly, the math doesn’t lie. We can calculate the probability of chance events, and if calculated properly, it immediately becomes obvious that CHANCE cannot do creation or choice or causation. Chance has no mechanism in place for doing so.
https://ultimate-model-of-reality.com/the-probability-of-protein-synthesis-by-chance-alone/
https://ultimate-model-of-reality.com/a-binomial-distribution-table-falsifies-creation-by-chance/
Scientists are lying to us whenever they try to convince us that chance can do causation.
This is a powerful scientific test for truth assertions!
Creation by Chance, Chance Causality, or Causation by Chance cries out for empirical verification. These are truth assertions from the Materialists, Naturalists, Darwinists, and Atheists; and, these truth assertions need to be experimentally verified like anything else. The problem is that they can’t be verified by a science experiment because they are in fact Creation by Chance or the Null Hypothesis to begin with. BOTH the Null Hypothesis and Creation by Chance are by definition caused by chance alone. They ARE the same thing. Creation by Chance IS the Null Hypothesis. Materialism, Naturalism, Darwinism, Nihilism, Atheism, the Theory of Evolution, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics ARE the Null Hypothesis or Creation by Chance. They are precisely what we are trying to identify and eliminate from science in the first place.
The way we get at the truth through Science and Statistics and the Scientific Method is to use them to falsify and eliminate the obvious lies – starting with Materialism (creation by rocks), Naturalism (creation by death or natural processes), Darwinism (creation by chance), Atheism (creation ex nihilo), and the Second Law of Thermodynamics (creation by random disorder or entropy). Science and Statistics and the Scientific Method were in fact designed to identify these falsehoods and then eliminate these kinds of things from Science. The whole purpose of Science and Statistics is to identify Creation by Chance of any type, and then eliminate it from Science.
Instead, we see the Materialists, Naturalists, Darwinists, Nihilists, and Atheists making CHANCE the cause of everything that exists in complete violation of the rules of Science and Statistics.
We see from Statistics that CHANCE and CAUSATION are mutually exclusive. Creation by Chance precludes or falsifies Causation. Two events are mutually exclusive if both cannot occur together at the same time. Two events are mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one event precludes or prevents the occurrence of the other event. Chance and Causation are mutually exclusive. Once it becomes causation, then it is no longer chance. Once we establish that our results were produced by chance alone, then we KNOW that we are NOT looking at any type of causation. We automatically KNOW that Materialism, Naturalism, Darwinism, Nihilism, Atheism, Behaviorism, Determinism, Physical Reductionism, the Theory of Evolution, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics CANNOT DO CAUSATION because they are by definition Creation by Chance or the Null Hypothesis, which means that they were produced by chance alone.
Materialism, Naturalism, Darwinism, Nihilism, Atheism, the Theory of Evolution, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics ARE Creation by Chance and by definition ARE caused by chance alone. They ARE the Null Hypothesis. They ARE Creation by Chance or Chance Causation. They ARE what we are trying to falsify and eliminate from Science. They cannot produce results or Real Effects. Chance Causation or Causation by Chance IS an oxymoron – a contradiction in terms. It’s self-falsifying because CHANCE cannot do creation or causation! Chance cannot do choice. Materialism, Naturalism, Darwinism, Atheism, and their derivatives ARE Chance Causation, and they are automatically FALSE because chance cannot do creation nor causation.
Here we just used the Rules of Statistics to falsify these lies. Anything that is caused by chance alone is automatically FALSE because chance can’t cause anything to happen. Chance and causation are mutually exclusive. If we are looking at causation or have found causation, then we KNOW that chance is no longer involved in the situation. CHOICE is coming into play instead. PSYCHE and CHOICE are the same thing – they do causation, both at the physical level and the quantum non-physical level!
In contrast, if we have established that our interpretations of the scientific evidence were “caused by chance alone” or “produced by chance alone”, then we automatically KNOW that there is NO causal relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable because chance cannot do causation. Once we establish that we are looking at the Null Hypothesis or Chance Causality, then we KNOW that we are NOT looking at any type of causation. Chance cannot do causation. Chance and causation are mutually exclusive. The one precludes the other.
That’s one of the reasons why WE KNOW that Materialism, Naturalism, Darwinism, Nihilism, Atheism, the Theory of Evolution, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics ARE FALSE, because they were produced by chance alone and are therefore the Null Hypothesis. Since they ARE the Null Hypothesis or Chance, they cannot be the Alternative Hypothesis or Causation, which means that they cannot be the True Cause of what we are observing and experiencing. These things can NEVER be the True Cause of anything because they were produced by chance alone, and chance cannot do causation. Since they are Creation by Chance or produced by chance alone, they cannot be the True Cause of the events that we have chosen to study. It’s that simple! In every science experiment, we are looking for the True Cause of the event, and the Null Hypothesis or Chance can NEVER be it.
Simple. Logical. Rational. Parsimonious. True.
See all the different problems, controversies, debates, and lies that we can solve and eliminate simply by choosing to use Statistics, Science, and the Scientific Methods the way that they were designed to be used – to identify and eliminate from science any type of Chance Causality, Creation by Chance, or the Null Hypothesis!
Mark My Words
The Next Essay in this Truth in Science Series